Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 14.510085 16.559062 18.758928 21.292267 24.124790 27.189888 30.753223
2025-07-27 11.276676 14.027219 17.205051 21.131015 25.832660 31.263220 37.990181
2025-08-03 9.545125 12.555474 16.201334 20.910567 26.797313 33.875318 42.987964
2025-08-10 8.302325 11.484334 15.504118 20.905127 27.915110 36.642472 48.257693
2025-08-17 7.433802 10.742933 15.078555 21.104019 29.177898 39.528881 53.692109
2025-08-24 6.636758 9.992068 14.539974 21.060644 30.057033 41.902229 58.520748
2025-08-31 5.930518 9.280048 13.966883 20.884513 30.689452 43.918636 62.907148
2025-09-07 5.419912 8.789612 13.644973 21.004127 31.693705 46.438411 68.040468
2025-09-14 5.109546 8.560429 13.666740 21.593592 33.363282 49.920105 74.621585
2025-09-21 4.629439 8.020965 13.178405 21.382541 33.838338 51.711512 78.868015
2025-09-28 4.037124 7.245038 12.264122 20.452662 33.173150 51.800766 80.634887
2025-10-05 3.849845 7.110551 12.331902 21.026689 34.785341 55.263908 87.437102
2025-10-12 3.627077 6.902788 12.275845 21.414324 36.151810 58.455292 94.029005
2025-10-19 3.333799 6.546385 11.949457 21.342177 36.788245 60.566135 99.081131
2025-10-26 3.039631 6.158381 11.535900 21.088691 37.102711 62.170261 103.390211
2025-11-02 2.818872 5.882565 11.290502 21.094034 37.825300 64.424790 108.776894
2025-11-09 2.649171 5.685661 11.165616 21.290715 38.862588 67.204804 115.077327
2025-11-16 2.458684 5.430361 10.915709 21.248323 39.485878 69.331790 120.400916
2025-11-23 2.266560 5.153067 10.603429 21.070341 39.858407 71.051018 125.111834
2025-11-30 2.130900 4.976663 10.464031 21.191059 40.745305 73.639529 131.317474
2025-12-07 2.064309 4.937183 10.580238 21.785114 42.487689 77.714798 140.111688
2025-12-14 1.907027 4.690180 10.276575 21.572421 42.772115 79.325987 144.833006
2025-12-21 1.684276 4.278114 9.615677 20.635191 41.688028 78.538174 145.453522